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According to Golden Ten Data on June 26, a research report from CICC stated that since March, gold prices have continued to adjust, with international gold prices once falling below $4,000/oz, retreating more than 25% from the early March high of $5,321/oz. This was mainly due to two factors: First, the US-Iran conflict drove up oil prices and inflation, and the market is concerned about the persistence of US inflation, leading to expectations of monetary tightening. Second, the debut of Waller at the June FOMC meeting was interpreted as hawkish, intensifying concerns about monetary tightening: Waller emphasized inflation discipline, raised inflation expectations in the dot plot, and half of the 18 voting members support at least one rate hike within the year. The current market narrative believes the Federal Reserve’s policy focus is "controlling inflation", and the futures market has already priced in one rate hike each in 2026 and 2027 by the Federal Reserve, aiming to restore the credibility of the dollar, which strengthens the dollar and suppresses gold.Regarding the above two logics, we believe linear extrapolation is not appropriate: US inflation may have already peaked and could enter a downward channel in the second half of the year. Waller's debut also does not necessarily mean the Federal Reserve has fully shifted to tightening; the current stance may be to leave room for a return to easing in the future. Therefore, this gold price correction does not signal the end of the bull market, and a turning point may not be far off. We remain optimistic about the future of gold prices, recommend maintaining positions, buying on dips, and waiting patiently for the turning point.

LME copper prices stopped falling and rebounded, supported by dip-buying, a weaker US dollar, and increased risk appetite. Is the market narrative facing a shift from the "supply disruption logic" to "macro pricing"?

Odaily reports that The Kobeissi Letter posted on the X platform stating that in the 12 months ending April 2026, the US net capital inflow reached a record-breaking $884 billion. This indicator reflects the size of external funds entering the US financial market through the purchase of US assets by private investors and official institutions. Net capital inflow has nearly doubled since the beginning of 2025. The peak in 2021 was around $400 billion, less than half of the current level. In April, the total purchase of US stocks by the private sector rose to $763 billion, setting a historical high; the amount purchased by official institutions increased to $121 billion, more than doubling since the beginning of the year.