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1. Geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation are driving volatility, as markets shift from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in renewed tightening risk. A second round of U.S.–Iran airstrikes, combined with May inflation data showing CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year (a three-year high) and PPI accelerating to 6.5%, has materially altered the macro narrative. We believe the window for Fed rate cuts has largely closed, with CME FedWatch now implying a 70% probability of at least one additional rate hike this year. The June 18 FOMC meeting marks Chair Waller's first policy meeting since taking office. More important than the rate decision itself will be the tone and substance of his remarks, which are likely to shape expectations for Fed policy in the second half of 2026 and beyond. We view this meeting as a key inflection point for cross-asset pricing. 2. Three major central banks (Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England) meet this week, making June 18 one of the most important policy days of the year. Our base case is that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at 3.75% while shifting its dot plot higher and adopting more hawkish language, signaling a willingness to tighten further if inflation remains persistent. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is approaching the 160 level—a threshold that previously triggered direct intervention by Japanese authorities. Combined with growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, we see scope for a near-term appreciation of the yen. Investors should also be mindful of potential carry-trade unwinding, which could create volatility across global risk assets. Given the elevated event risk, we recommend reducing leveraged exposure and maintaining adequate portfolio liquidity ahead of the FOMC meeting. 3. Bitcoin's three key bottoming indicators are flashing a rare confluence signal. AHR999 stands at 0.3249, Price/200WMA at 1.024, and Reserve Risk at 0.0011. Since 2015, all three indicators have simultaneously triggered only three times. Each prior occurrence was followed by gains of more than 120% over the subsequent 12 months. However, Bitcoin ETF flows remain negative (7-day average: -$232 million), and institutional premium indicators have yet to turn positive. Our preferred approach is to accumulate gradually within the current bottoming zone and look for seven consecutive days of ETF net inflows as a higher-conviction signal to increase exposure. Key assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, WLD, BEAT, FIDA, ASML, and ACN. Also watch for potential long-JPY opportunities via JPYUSD CFDs (160 is a key BoJ intervention level, and rising rate hike expectations may support yen appreciation).





