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Waller's Debut Sets the Tone for the Fed, Crypto Markets Flash Multiple Bottoming Signals
VIPWaller's Debut Sets the Tone for the Fed, Crypto Markets Flash Multiple Bottoming Signals

1. Geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation are driving volatility, as markets shift from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in renewed tightening risk. A second round of U.S.–Iran airstrikes, combined with May inflation data showing CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year (a three-year high) and PPI accelerating to 6.5%, has materially altered the macro narrative. We believe the window for Fed rate cuts has largely closed, with CME FedWatch now implying a 70% probability of at least one additional rate hike this year. The June 18 FOMC meeting marks Chair Waller's first policy meeting since taking office. More important than the rate decision itself will be the tone and substance of his remarks, which are likely to shape expectations for Fed policy in the second half of 2026 and beyond. We view this meeting as a key inflection point for cross-asset pricing. 2. Three major central banks (Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England) meet this week, making June 18 one of the most important policy days of the year. Our base case is that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at 3.75% while shifting its dot plot higher and adopting more hawkish language, signaling a willingness to tighten further if inflation remains persistent. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is approaching the 160 level—a threshold that previously triggered direct intervention by Japanese authorities. Combined with growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, we see scope for a near-term appreciation of the yen. Investors should also be mindful of potential carry-trade unwinding, which could create volatility across global risk assets. Given the elevated event risk, we recommend reducing leveraged exposure and maintaining adequate portfolio liquidity ahead of the FOMC meeting. 3. Bitcoin's three key bottoming indicators are flashing a rare confluence signal. AHR999 stands at 0.3249, Price/200WMA at 1.024, and Reserve Risk at 0.0011. Since 2015, all three indicators have simultaneously triggered only three times. Each prior occurrence was followed by gains of more than 120% over the subsequent 12 months. However, Bitcoin ETF flows remain negative (7-day average: -$232 million), and institutional premium indicators have yet to turn positive. Our preferred approach is to accumulate gradually within the current bottoming zone and look for seven consecutive days of ETF net inflows as a higher-conviction signal to increase exposure. Key assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, WLD, BEAT, FIDA, ASML, and ACN. Also watch for potential long-JPY opportunities via JPYUSD CFDs (160 is a key BoJ intervention level, and rising rate hike expectations may support yen appreciation).

Bitget·2026/06/15 05:52
Flash
12:37
Tom Lee: Crypto Market in ‘Early Bull Phase,’ Bitmine Staking APY at Around 226M
BlockBeats News, June 15th. According to the latest Chairman's letter disclosed by Bitmine, in the past week, Bitmine added 76,881 Ethereum (ETH) to its holdings, continuing its high-frequency accumulation pace. The company stated that the current ETH price correction does not reflect the improvement in Ethereum's fundamentals and believes that the crypto market is in the "early stage of a bull market." As of June 14th, Bitmine's total staked ETH reached 4,718,677 coins, estimated at approximately $81 billion at the current price, making it one of the world's largest Ethereum asset holders and staking entities. The company announced that its self-built institutional-grade staking platform, MAVAN, has been officially launched and will gradually open to institutional investors, custodians, and ecosystem partners to expand its staking infrastructure service capabilities. Currently, some ETH has been staked through this platform. According to the company's disclosed data, the current staking scale corresponds to an annualized return of approximately $2.26 billion to $2.69 billion, with a 7-day average yield of about 2.79%. As the staking scale expands, related earnings are expected to further increase. Bitmine's management also expects the company to achieve its "5% Ethereum supply share by 2026" target in the future and continue to expand its strategic ETH reserves. Additionally, the company announced a third quarterly cash dividend of $0.2639 per share for its Class A preferred stock, with a payment date of July 6, 2026.
12:22
Iran to Coordinate with Oman and Other Countries to Ensure Hormuz Strait Passage, Vaezi Says Volume of Traffic has Increased
BlockBeats News, June 15th - Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that Tehran will coordinate with Oman and other countries to take measures to ensure the safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz. The arrangements will be implemented for a specific time window and will correspond to commitments from the U.S. side. U.S. Vice President Vance stated that the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased. The Iranian agreement has a two-step verification process. (Golden Finance)
12:17
Nvidia Plans to Issue Investment-Grade Bonds to Raise at Least $20 Billion
BlockBeats News, June 15th, Nvidia plans to raise at least $20 billion through a senior notes issuance. Prior to this, Nvidia had submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a seven-tranche note issuance. (Jinse)
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