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On the Margin Newsletter: What would a Trump sweep mean for markets?
On the Margin Newsletter: What would a Trump sweep mean for markets?

Plus, a look into US spot BTC funds six months into trading

Blockworks·2024/07/12 07:31
Federal Reserve’s strategy for fighting inflation is working
Federal Reserve’s strategy for fighting inflation is working

Share link:In this post: The Fed’s Alberto Musalem says we’re making good progress on lowering inflation but didn’t say when rates might drop. The latest CPI report shows inflation falling more than expected, raising hopes for possible rate cuts later this year. Jerome Powell said that the Fed needs to see sustained inflation control before cutting rates.Disclaimer. The information provided is not trading advice. Cryptopolitan.com holds no liability for any investments made based on the information provide

Cryptopolitan·2024/07/12 06:43
Flash
14:46
Oaktree Capital Founder: Cautionary Investors May Miss Historic Investment Opportunities
On June 18, Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, discussed whether the current market is experiencing 'irrational exuberance' and the opportunities and risks under the AI investment boom in a recent podcast. He noted that the current market can be described using Alan Greenspan's words from 30 years ago; we are in a 'boom,' but no one can definitively say whether it is 'irrational.' Using SpaceX's impending IPO with a valuation of nearly $2 trillion as an example, he stated that deciding whether to participate and at what price is purely a matter of 'guessing,' and cannot be calculated like traditional value investing. Howard mentioned his favorite saying: 'Cautious individuals struggle to achieve great things.' He pointed out a current investment dilemma: investing in tech giants may lead to significant mistakes, but it can also yield remarkable successes. Those who hesitate out of fear of risk may miss out on the greatest investment opportunity in human history. In contrast, investors in traditional industries such as transportation, retail distribution, and real estate are unlikely to make catastrophic investment errors, but they also cannot seize the monumental benefits of this transformative era. In terms of valuation, Howard provided a key reference: the current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is about 23 times, which is approximately 50% higher than the 80-year average of 16 times, but far lower than the 32 times during the 2000 internet bubble and below the 60 to 90 times level of the 'Nifty Fifty' era, indicating that overall it is 'high but not out of control.' Regarding AI investments, he proposed a three-tiered investment strategy: investing in large-scale tech companies is a low-risk approach due to their established business and cash flow; investing in vertical AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI carries higher risks but also a higher probability of survival; while investing in early-stage startups is akin to gambling, where most will lose everything, but a few will become extremely wealthy. He advised investors to choose where they want to invest on the risk spectrum, mix different positions along the spectrum, and then determine what proportion these companies should represent in their overall investment portfolio.
14:38
The first Chinese-American executive director of the Ethereum Foundation stepped down after just one year, with Vitalik praising her contributions.
BlockBeats News, June 18th, Hsiao-Wei Wang, the first Chinese-American Executive Director of the Ethereum Foundation, announced her resignation today. In her statement, she mentioned that she decided to prioritize her personal life and future directions. She said, "Now is the right time to step back and I am still contemplating the next steps." In response, Vitalik Buterin praised Hsiao-Wei Wang's contributions, stating that she has been "a steadfast contributor to the Ethereum ecosystem for the past decade" and expressing his anticipation for her future adventures. On March 10, 2025, the Ethereum Foundation (EF) announced the promotion of Hsiao-Wei Wang (Chinese name: Wang Xiaowei) to the board of directors, making her the first Chinese leader to rise from a technical background to the board in the seven years since the establishment of the EF.
14:36
Canaccord Genuity has initiated research on BETTER HOME & FINANCE HOLDING and has given its stock an initial "buy" rating.
The investment bank has set a target price of $42 per share, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's future performance.
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