News

(1) SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Ataru Okumura stated that if inflation prompts the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, it could increase tightening pressure on the Bank of Japan. (2) Since the significant interest rate gap with the United States has long been a core driver of yen weakness, any new round of global tightening could expose the Bank of Japan's risk of being relatively slow to raise rates. (3) Although concerns about Japanese government intervention may prevent the USD/JPY from significantly exceeding 160, investors are skeptical about the sustainability of intervention measures, so the Bank of Japan may be forced to raise rates at a slightly faster pace.

(1) Analysis: The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged but signaled a possible rate hike later this year. The rebound in the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields is putting pressure on gold. Meanwhile, the easing of tensions in the Middle East has reduced safe-haven demand, causing market expectations for a December rate hike to heat up significantly. However, after a consecutive decline, gold is now approaching an important support area. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether low-level buying can trigger a technical rebound. (2) Key focus: US Treasury yields, US Dollar Index, geopolitical situation, US initial jobless claims data (3) Resistance: 4350, 4380, 4400 (4) Support: 4300, 4260, 4200;

(1) Analysis: The expected signing of a peace agreement between the US and Iran continues to intensify, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to navigation has eased supply concerns, leading to a further decline in market risk premiums. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency predicts that global crude oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in the coming years, and expectations of a loose supply-demand balance are suppressing oil prices. However, after a consecutive decline in the early stage, there is technical demand for a correction, so prices may maintain a short-term volatile and slightly weak trend.(2) Key focus: Geopolitical situation, inventory data, US Dollar Index, OPEC+ production policy(3) Resistance: 75.00, 76.50, 77.00(4) Support: 74.30, 74.00, 72.00