News

(1) Oils: Today, the palm oil 2609 contract rebounded from its lows to close up 1.27%, with the late session boosted by the El Niño theme and unusual price movements in rubber and 20# rubber. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed an El Niño event, with half the models indicating a strong to very strong level, fueling market speculation about reduced production in the main producing regions in the future. Exports from Malaysia in early June rebounded significantly compared to the previous period, and with the Indonesian rupiah appreciating and bearish sentiment in the spot market easing, fundamental support was established. However, persistently weak crude oil prices are suppressing oils, and rainfall in Southeast Asia remains normal in the short term, so the actual reduction in output due to El Niño has not yet materialized, making the sustainability of bullish factors questionable.(2) Price support has appeared along the lower range of the market, with near-term contracts expected to remain within the range and distant contracts driven by stronger climate forecasts. For new positions, it is recommended to wait and see. In the spot market, declines outnumber rises. Guangzhou 24-degree palm oil increased by 20 yuan to 9,130 yuan; soybean oil fell by 30 yuan to 8,560 yuan; Jiangsu GMO rapeseed oil dropped by 60 yuan to 10,170 yuan.(3) Soybean meal: The increase in supply pressures from South America and favorable weather in the primary US soybean-producing regions have led to weaker US soybean prices, lowering import costs. Domestic pressure from arriving imported soybeans continues to build, oil plants are ramping up operations, and soybean meal inventories keep accumulating. On the demand side, deep losses in hog breeding and ample feed enterprise inventories are limiting speculative hoarding, sustaining a supply-strong and demand-weak pattern, and spot prices remain weak. For trading, maintain a strategy of selling on rallies and mainly observe on single trends.(4) Corn: The fundamentally loose structure persists. The listing of wheat and germinated wheat along with increased news of stock releases are increasing supply pressures; downstream enterprises have ample inventories and purchase as needed, with wheat's listing crowding out corn demand. In a supply-strong and demand-weak environment, corn spot prices are under pressure and run weakly. Sell on rallies on a single trend basis; there is no clear driving force for arbitrage, so watching is advised.(5) Hog: The daily theoretical slaughter volume in June-July continues to increase, while the decline in slaughter weight is limited in the short term, and some secondary breeding pigs have not yet been fully shipped, so supply pressures persist. The Dragon Boat Festival offers limited support to pork demand, and the stocking phase is largely over, with no highlights in short-term consumption. June-July is a seasonal lull for hog consumption, with weak demand expected in the near to mid-term. In the medium to longer term, breeding profits may see some recovery, but the scope is limited. Mainly observe on single trends, enter reverse arbitrage.(6) Eggs: Recently, spot egg prices have pulled back, with long positions exiting the market and prompting a price correction; egg calendar spreads have also declined and adjusted. In the short term, pay attention to stocking conditions for the Dragon Boat Festival demand and to the price difference between large and small eggs. In the longer term, the significant increase in chick replenishment in February has led to a possible recovery in the laying hen population, and combined with a year-on-year increase in breeding profits, participation should be cautious. Observing is recommended for single trend, arbitrage, and options trading.

⑴ Crude Oil: The United States and Iran have confirmed the contents of a memorandum of understanding. Both parties will sign the agreement on the 19th and commence nuclear negotiations. The agreement will open the Strait of Hormuz and lift sanctions on Iranian oil, which is expected to ease the energy and chemical sector supply chain crisis. Overseas crude oil continues to fall sharply, and the energy and chemical sector is expected to continue to see spot and futures prices drop in tandem in the short term, remaining weak and volatile.⑵ Fuel Oil: During the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, and oil-producing countries cut production, while domestic dependence on high-sulfur fuel oil imports remained high. The U.S. and Iran have confirmed the contents of the memorandum of understanding, will sign the agreement on the 19th, and launch nuclear negotiations. The agreement will open the Strait of Hormuz and lift Iranian oil sanctions, which is expected to ease the fuel oil supply chain crisis, with an overall weak performance anticipated.⑶ Asphalt: Today, the price of Shandong 70# heavy traffic asphalt stands at 4,500 yuan/ton, -50 yuan/ton compared with before. Crude oil continues its downward trend, and market quotations remain on a weak decline, causing hesitation among traders. In June, domestic asphalt local refineries’ total output was 625,000 tons, down 249,000 tons month-on-month, a decline of 28.5%. As of June 15, inventories at 54 domestic asphalt sample plants totaled 784,000 tons, a decrease of 1.3% from June 11 and up 0.3% year-on-year; social inventory was 1,231,000 tons, down 3.7% from June 11 and down 33.6% year-on-year. Overall, asphalt is in a weak supply and demand situation. With a mid-term easing of U.S.-Iran tensions, asphalt may continue weak adjustments.⑷ Glass: Today, transactions in the North China market were average, and prices in the Shahe market were relatively flexible, with operators mainly buying on dips. The current daily industry output is 145,900 tons. Last week, the total inventory of sample float glass enterprises nationwide was 76.573 million heavy cases, an increase of 107,000 heavy cases (+0.14%) week-on-week and up 9.89% year-on-year.⑸ Soda Ash: Today, the domestic soda ash market was mediocre, and trading sentiment was quiet. Companies are adjusting production, with some suspending operations resulting in lower output. Current soda ash output is 109,700 tons, down 1,900 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.66%. On Monday, total inventory at domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7065 million tons, down 5,600 tons from last Thursday. High supply and weak demand are difficult to change mid-term; in the short term, it may still be possible to short soda ash or long the glass-soda ash price spread at high levels.⑹ Caustic Soda: Recently, alumina procurement prices for liquid caustic soda have continued to rise. Low prices in Shandong have gradually converged, with prices for some supplies in Southwest and West Shandong increasing, while changes in North Shandong and other regions are minimal.⑺ Methanol: Today, the spot price in Taicang is 3,120 yuan, -55, and the price in the northern line of Inner Mongolia is 2,557.5 yuan, -57.5. Today, the overall domestic methanol market continued to decline across the board; after opening lower, futures remained weak at low levels, and the focus in ports also softened accordingly. Following the conclusion of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, commodity futures including crude oil have plunged in tandem, and some regional spot markets are showing clear panic sentiment, so the short-term market is expected to remain weak and consolidate.

Golden Ten Data June 16th｜S&P 500 index futures erased earlier gains and turned lower.