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On June 16, Bernstein analysts, including David Dai, reported that South Korea's semiconductor equipment imports in May decreased by 5% month-on-month, but the year-to-date growth rate has risen to 39% year-on-year. The firm believes that the import data is strongly correlated with the combined capital expenditures of Samsung and SK Hynix. Although both companies saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in capital expenditures in the first quarter, this mainly reflects seasonal factors and the pace of prior infrastructure investments, with subsequent expenditures expected to recover. The report indicates that South Korea imported lithography equipment from the Netherlands worth €928 million in May, a month-on-month increase of 28% and a year-on-year increase of approximately 150%, marking the second-highest level for the second month of a quarter on record. Bernstein estimates that ASML's system sales in South Korea for the second quarter will be around €2.31 billion, more than double year-on-year. Analysts suggest that this momentum may be supported by DRAM capacity expansion and the accelerated introduction of the 1c node, which requires higher intensity for lithography equipment. Testing equipment also shows positive signals. South Korea's imports of testing machines from Japan and Malaysia increased by 103% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month in May. Bernstein's regression model indicates that Advantest's sales in South Korea for the second quarter may grow by 84% quarter-on-quarter, significantly higher than the market's expectation of a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase in overall revenue. However, not all equipment supplier data is equally strong. Imports of wafer fabrication equipment related to Tokyo Electron in South Korea decreased by 27% month-on-month in May. Bernstein expects the company's sales in South Korea for the second quarter may decline by 15% quarter-on-quarter, below the market's expectation of flat revenue. Bernstein maintains an 'Outperform' rating on ASML, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix. The report suggests that the investment cycle in storage driven by AI continues to transmit upstream in the equipment supply chain, with the most notable prosperity in lithography, testing, and advanced DRAM expansion-related sectors.

On June 16, according to 21st Century Business Herald, Chen Dong, Chief Investment Officer for Asia at Swiss FXCM, stated that even in a mature and strong market like the United States, if artificial intelligence-related stocks are excluded from the main indices, the remaining components have not actually recorded an increase, indicating a significant 'K-shaped' divergence within the market. He pointed out that the structural divergence in the Chinese market is not an exception; many global markets are experiencing a substantial performance gap between AI sectors and non-AI sectors. Investors should view this globally pervasive divergence trend, driven by technological revolution, with a rational perspective.

(1) Kellie Wood, Head of Fixed Income at Schroders Australia's subsidiary, stated that the three previous rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia have had a significant effect, sufficient to trigger an interest rate cut earlier than most people expect. (2) The policy committee can see that the tightening policy is working, and pausing rate hikes in August to allow policy effects to be transmitted to the overall economy is the logical next step. The three rate hikes have exerted enough restraint, and the negative wealth effect is beginning to show. (3) If household spending continues to decline naturally, inflation will fall without the need for further interest rate increases. However, the risk is that this effect may be excessive, leading the slowdown in consumption to turn into a more severe downturn. Therefore, the next step for the Reserve Bank of Australia will be to cut interest rates, and it may happen earlier than most people expect.