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A survey of 45 economists by institutions shows that 41 expect the Central Bank of Brazil to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time at Wednesday's meeting, lowering the benchmark Selic rate to 14.25%, while 4 expect it to remain unchanged.The Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee began a gradual easing cycle in March, after keeping borrowing costs at a nearly 20-year high of 15% until the second half of 2025. The head of macro research at Kinitro Capital said that the Committee’s communication aligns with further rate cuts, but the overall cycle has become more uncertain.Analysts say that, given the continued pressure on consumer prices, policymakers may repeat cautious wording in their statement. Brazil’s annualized inflation rate in May rose to 4.72% from 4.39% in April, further deviating from the central bank’s 3% target and its tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points above and below.BTG Pactual economists point out that the El Niño weather pattern has become an additional potential risk for inflation. If expectations become further unanchored, the room for rate cuts this year will be nearly zero. Among the 31 respondents, 19 expect another 25-basis-point cut at the August meeting.The median of quarterly forecasts shows the Selic rate at 13.75% by the end of 2026 and 12.00% by the end of 2027. Against the backdrop of most developed economies maintaining high interest rates or considering hikes, Brazil’s gradual rate-cut path faces both internal and external constraints. Attention will follow whether Wednesday’s statement wording is adjusted and the potential impact on the real's exchange rate.

⑴ The U.S. Treasury will issue $65 billion of 6-week Treasury bills on Tuesday, with a maturity date of July 30, 2026. There will be an additional $1 billion in financing upon settlement on June 18. Non-competitive and competitive bidding will close at 23:00 and 23:30 (GMT+8) on Tuesday, respectively.⑵ The current WI 6-week Treasury bill is quoted around 3.615%, with the bid yield in the money market at approximately 3.63%. The bid yield for Treasury bills maturing on July 23 is 3.618%, and the forward roll spread is about 1.2 basis points. The 1- and 2-month term spreads are 3.5 basis points, equivalent to about 0.875 basis points per week, so the current 1.2 basis point roll spread holds relative value.⑶ Federal funds and SOFR futures pricing indicates a zero probability of a rate change in June. Therefore, this week's bidding demand is primarily driven by financing and cash management needs rather than directional rate bets. It is recommended to conduct absolute long and forward roll operations at the mid-point of the market.⑷ The average bid-to-cover ratio for the past six cash management Treasury bill issuances was 2.99, with indirect bidders accounting for 55.45%, direct bidders for 5.59%, and dealers for 34.17%. Currently, liquidity is improving due to net Treasury redemptions, and the GC rate has fallen below the 10-day moving average, which creates a favorable environment for short-term debt issuance.⑸ Key points to watch are whether the bid-to-cover ratio and indirect bidder participation can remain above average levels, as well as the actual trend of short-term funding rates following Thursday’s $3 billion cash injection. This will determine whether the pricing of this issuance is attractive.

BlockBeats news, June 16, according to Bitget market data, US stock AMKOR surged more than 6% in pre-market trading. TSMC (TSM.N) and AMKOR announced the establishment of a long-term partnership to accelerate the development of advanced packaging in the United States.