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(1) Emma Mogford of the Premier Miton Monthly Income Fund stated after the Bank of England kept interest rates at 3.75% on Thursday that the central bank may not need to raise rates this year. (2) She pointed out that the price increases triggered by the Iran war later this year may be offset by weakening demand, meaning there is uncertainty about the extent to which energy costs will transmit to core inflation. (3) In addition, given the relatively weak UK labor market and only moderate wage growth expectations, this will limit the scope for second-round inflation effects to spread. (4) Although two policymakers voted in favor of a rate hike at this meeting, most members believed there was currently insufficient evidence to suggest that price pressures would rise persistently and thus chose to wait and see. (5) The key for future policy decisions lies in the evolution of actual demand data and wage trends; if signs of an economic slowdown become clearer, even if energy prices remain high, the central bank may not have sufficient grounds to take tightening action.

Commercial vessel passage will commence immediately and will be fully restored within 30 days, taking into account Iran’s need to remove technical and military obstacles and to carry out mine clearance operations. Iran will hold talks with Oman and consult with other Gulf coastal countries to determine the future management and maritime service arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz. The future management of the Strait of Hormuz will be based on “applicable international law and the sovereign rights of the coastal states of the strait.”

Golden Ten Data, June 18 – Schroders Senior Economist George Brown stated that by keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged, the Bank of England is currently buying time, and the threshold for raising rates remains “very high.” A weak labor market and sluggish economic growth should limit the second-round effects caused by soaring energy prices. The preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz should also reduce some of the more extreme upside risks facing energy prices. However, the Bank of England cannot afford to be complacent. “If inflation expectations continue to rise, the Bank of England may still be forced to take action.”