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On June 16, Kieran Williams, head of Asian foreign exchange at INTOUCH, stated that the recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been fully absorbed by the market. Therefore, the market's focus has never been on the interest rate decision itself, but rather on the accompanying measures. According to the statement, the overall tone leans towards dovish. The central bank plans to suspend the reduction of Japanese government bond purchases starting in April 2027, indicating a concession to the bond market, which contradicts its earlier warning that core CPI may exceed 2%. Given that the subsequent policy path will clearly depend on the situation in the Middle East and the transmission effects of oil prices, the significant interest rate differential with the United States will likely be insufficient to support the yen. In the medium to long term, the pressure on the yen is unlikely to ease solely due to this factor, making intervention a realistic risk in the near term. The press conference by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will be a key variable. With Governor Ueda's absence, how he defines the pace of the next interest rate hike will become a focal point for the market.

BlockBeats News, June 16th, Aletheia Capital recently issued a highly bullish research report on Micron Technology (MU), significantly raising the price target to $1600 and predicting that the value share of AI memory devices in AI hardware systems will exceed 70% by 2027. In the report, Aletheia expects Micron's EPS for the 2027 fiscal year to increase by 8.5 times from the current level, further expanding by 1.8 times in the 2028 fiscal year, with a cumulative increase of 15 times. The report also predicts that the company will generate between $350 billion and $400 billion in free cash flow cumulatively from FY26 to FY28. On the price prediction front, Aletheia's upward revision also exceeded market expectations. The report indicates that the institution now expects the average selling price (ASP) of server DRAM to rise by another 30% in the third quarter of 2026, far above the previous forecast of 10% to 15%; a further increase of 10% to 15% is projected for the fourth quarter of 2026. Regarding HBM, Aletheia predicts that its ASP will double year-on-year in 2027. This assessment is based on the continued explosive demand for high-bandwidth memory in AI training and inference, while the high technological barriers on the supply side further support the upward movement of prices. Possibly boosted by this report, Micron's stock price surged over 10% yesterday.

On June 16, Min Joo Kang, a senior economist at ING for Japan and South Korea, stated that the market's initial reaction to the Bank of Japan's recent decision was relatively limited. This is understandable, as a 25 basis point rate hike had already been widely anticipated and priced in. Notably, the appearance of opposition votes, while not entirely unexpected, will keep observers of the Bank of Japan vigilant regarding the timing of the next rate hike. Currently, most market participants are awaiting comments from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida to gain clearer insights into the future rate hike path; the short-term movement of the yen will depend on the hawkishness of Uchida's remarks. We believe that unless Uchida signals a strong likelihood of another rate hike soon, the yen is likely to hover around the 160 level.