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Gold price falls below 200-day moving average, Federal Reserve decision may determine short-term direction of precious metalsGold has weakened recently, driving prices below the 200-day moving average. From a technical perspective, the short- to medium-term outlook remains bearish. Although prices rebounded following the announcement of the US-Iran peace agreement, it remains to be seen whether traders can consistently push the gold price above $4,389/oz on a closing basis and reverse the downward trend.The market focus has shifted to this week's Federal Reserve decision. At the beginning of the year, investors expected at least three rate cuts, but months of strong job growth have strengthened policymakers’ confidence in the economy’s resilience. Additionally, high energy prices have kept inflation elevated, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts and raising the risk of further rate hikes.Despite the US-Iran deal, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains cautious. Recent security incidents, including missile attacks on transit vessels, highlight ongoing risks. Geopolitical risk premiums remain high, supporting energy prices. The US Energy Information Administration expects oil shipments to recover in the third quarter, but full normalization of flows may take several months, and pre-conflict levels may not be reached until early 2027.Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is most likely to adopt a cautious stance, seeking a balance between containing inflation and maintaining a robust labor market. This delicate balance limits the possibility of an extended rate hike cycle, even as the probability priced in by markets for such an outcome is rising. Meanwhile, “smart money” is accelerating into AI-driven growth themes, while traditional physical gold-consuming nations such as China, India, and the Middle East remain cautious.In the short term, gold prices are expected to trade within the $4,000–$4,400/oz range, and silver prices between $60–$73/oz. Subsequent attention will focus on how the Federal Reserve’s decision statement weighs geopolitical risk, as well as the potential for a slower-than-expected recovery in the Strait of Hormuz. Should energy prices rebound, this could once again boost inflation expectations and support the safe-haven demand for precious metals.