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Glonghui, June 18th｜Wolfe Research stated that Tesla's delivery volume and profitability in the second quarter are expected to remain stable, but the long-term performance of its stock price will depend on its execution in the robotaxi and humanoid robot sectors. Analyst Emmanuel Rosner predicts that Tesla's global deliveries in the second quarter will reach 420,000 units, up approximately 10% year-over-year, surpassing the market consensus of around 400,000 units. The analyst forecasts that the gross margin of the automotive business in the second quarter will remain at a low range of 18%, with earnings per share between $0.50 and $0.52, higher than the market consensus estimate of $0.45.

According to AiCoin data, the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) has dropped to 15, entering the extreme fear range. Meanwhile, over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $1.679 billion, with long positions accounting for $1.149 billion, over 68% of the total, indicating further unwinding of market leverage risk. On-chain data shows that the whale Garrett Jin sold 184,102 HYPE tokens for approximately $13.55 million yesterday and today bought back 81,703 HYPE tokens worth around $6 million. This suggests that the so-called smart money, which previously reduced positions, has started to reassess the current risk-reward ratio. From the perspective of market structure, the main focus now should not be on price itself, but on the divergence between sentiment and capital behavior. On one hand, the FGI has fallen into the extreme fear range, meaning market sentiment remains pessimistic; on the other hand, some on-chain funds have started to tentatively buy back in. Historical patterns indicate that when panic sentiment is continuously released, but large funds begin to reenter, the market often shifts from a phase of "emotion-driven decline" to "capital-driven bottom building."For traders, the current phase is more suitable for defensive positioning rather than blindly chasing ups and downs. For BTC, close attention should be paid to the support area around $62,000. If the market continues to test this level with shrinking trading volumes, it may be worth considering building spot positions in batches; if the key support is broken, it's best to wait for a clearer stabilization signal.For HYPE, whale buybacks show that capital interest in this asset remains high. However, due to significant short-term volatility, it is better suited to light positions and phased entries, rather than high-leverage chasing of gains. If continued on-chain accumulation signals appear, its independent trend is still worth tracking.Overall, the market is still in a game phase following the release of panic. Extreme fear does not mean an immediate reversal, but the smart money has already started to look for new positions. For medium and long-term funds, tracking changes in capital flows is often more important than guessing short-term price movements.Risk warning: The above content is for market information sharing and data analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.

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